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基于系统动力学的长江三角洲港口群物流系统协调发展研究

崔建新

  In order to analyse port competition and cooperation in Yangtze River Delta, definitude each port function, optimize the consolidation and dispersing structure (abbreviated as CDS) .speed up regional logistics developing, in this paper ,the author induct the conception of regional port group logistics system and band together the research on port group and regional logistics system.Because the transport system is dynamic, complicated, reactive, long-term and periodic, it is suitable for the application of system dynamics. When it concerns the problem of port group logistic system for particular, which has a great number of factors, a complex makeup and dramatic variations, system dynamics can describe, simulate and forecast, therefore carry out effective analysis and research on the formation of port group logistic system, factors, tendencies and variation features.By utilizing Vensim PLE, the special software of system dynamics and by establishing a system dynamics model, the research made efforts to find the dynamic relations between various factors. Through simulation, the conclusions that policy makers care about have been drawn and in a certain time period, these conclusions will serve as an important support of the policy making.This research completed mainly the following tasks:Analyzed the chief outside factors and basic inside makeup elements of the system; established the systematic dynamics model, and employed the model to carry out historical simulation and developing forecast; with the results of the model and the actual condition of the variation of the system, comprehensively analyzed the formation and variation mechanism.1 .In accordance with the simulation results, some conclusions were drawn: In Yangtze River Delta .shanghai should play a container hinge port and prefer to expand international transferring operation, meanwhile ningbo should, open up hinterland with an ere on stample bulk cargo and inner trade.2.Do our best to optimize the CDS, improve the water carriage proportion.3. Choose a port along Changjiang river as the main close ocean transferring port, to conformity the close ocean supply of goods of Yangtze River Delta.and lighten Shanghai port pressure. Set up another system dynamics model and analyse ,choose Taicang port as the transferring port.……   
[关键词]:port group logistic system;system dynamics;CDS;throughput ability throughput
[文献类型]:硕士论文
[文献出处]:上海海事大学2006年